Who will be the next pope? Check out the top contenders and what drives the 2025 conclave to pick Pope Francis’s successor in this quick read!
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The Catholic Church stands at a pivotal moment following the passing of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025.
As the College of Cardinals prepares for the conclave, expected to take place between May 6 and 11, 2025, the world watches with anticipation to see who will emerge as the next leader of the 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.
The conclave, a centuries-old tradition shrouded in secrecy, will see approximately 135 cardinal electors under the age of 80 choose the successor to Francis, a pontiff known for his progressive reforms and global outreach.
With no clear frontrunner and a diverse field of candidates, the question remains: who will be the next pope?
The Conclave: A Unique Electoral Process
The papal conclave is unlike any other election.
Held in the Sistine Chapel, cardinals are sequestered from the outside world, swearing an oath of secrecy.
They vote in rounds—up to four ballots per day—until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority (approximately 90 votes).
The process is famously unpredictable, and the adage “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal” reflects the shifting alliances and surprises that often define the outcome.
White smoke from the chapel’s chimney will signal the election of a new pope, expected in mid-May 2025.
Francis’s legacy looms large. Having appointed 80% of the electors, his vision of a more inclusive, pastoral, and global Church will shape the conclave.
However, tensions between progressive and conservative factions and the desire for geographic diversity could lead to a compromise candidate.
Below, we explore some of the leading “papabile” (pope-able) candidates and the factors that may influence the cardinals’ decision.
Leading Candidates for the Papacy
While the conclave is unpredictable, several cardinals have emerged as potential contenders based on their experience, ideology, and global influence.
Here are the key figures to watch:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat and a close ally of Pope Francis.
Often described as a “continuity candidate,” he supports Francis’s reforms, including efforts to modernize the Church and engage with global issues like climate change and migration.
His diplomatic achievements—such as negotiations with China on bishop appointments and peace efforts in the Middle East—bolster his credentials.
Parolin’s deep knowledge of Vatican operations and financial reforms makes him a strong choice.
However, some cardinals may hesitate to elect another Italian pope, given the push for a non-European leader.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Known as the “Asian Francis,” Tagle is a charismatic and progressive cardinal who could become the first Asian pope.
As pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, he has significant Vatican experience and a global following, particularly in Asia, where Catholicism is growing rapidly.
His focus on social justice and the poor aligns with Francis’s priorities, but a 2022 bullying scandal at Caritas Internationalis, which led to his dismissal, could raise concerns among electors.
Tagle’s youth and energy make him a compelling choice for a long pontificate.
Cardinal Peter Erdo (Hungary, 72)
A conservative canon lawyer and the Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Erdo is a respected figure who could bridge the Church’s ideological divide.
His multilingual skills and expertise in Church law are assets, and his conservative stance appeals to traditionalists.
However, controversial remarks comparing migration to human trafficking may alienate progressive cardinals.
Erdo’s ability to appeal to both sides positions him as a potential compromise candidate.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo (Democratic Republic of Congo, 65)
Ambongo is a rising star representing the vibrant African Church.
As Archbishop of Kinshasa, he has been a vocal advocate for social justice in Africa, though his conservative views—particularly his opposition to same-sex blessings—may limit his appeal among progressives.
An African pope would be a historic milestone, reflecting the Church’s shift toward the Global South, where Catholicism is growing fastest.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
A progressive “street priest” and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, Zuppi embodies Francis’s pastoral approach.
Known for his work with people with low incomes and his peace missions in Ukraine and Russia, Zuppi is a favorite among reformers.
However, his limited Vatican experience could be a drawback.
If cardinals seek a pope to continue Francis’s inclusive vision, Zuppi is a strong contender.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66)
The Archbishop of Marseille, Aveline, is a dark horse candidate whose progressive views on immigration and interfaith dialogue align with Francis’s priorities.
His youth and limited Italian fluency may pose challenges, but the prospect of a French pope—the first since the 14th century—intrigues his candidacy.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
A conservative advocate for climate and economic justice, Turkson represents Africa’s growing influence but may be considered too old for a long pontificate.
Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça (Portugal, 59)
A progressive intellectual, his youth and lack of experience may hinder his chances.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Jerusalem, 59)
His pastoral work in a conflict zone is admirable, but his relative obscurity makes him a long shot.
What Will Shape the Conclave?
Several factors will influence the cardinals’ decision:
- Continuity vs. Change: Francis’s reforms—on issues like synodality, women’s roles, and outreach to marginalized groups—have polarized the Church. Some cardinals may seek a pope to solidify these changes, while others may favor a conservative to slow or reverse them.
- Geographic Representation: With fewer than half of the electors being European, the push for a non-European pope is strong. Africa and Asia, where Catholicism is growing, could see their first pope, reflecting the Church’s global shift.
- Age and Tenure: Cardinals may prefer an older candidate (late 70s) for a shorter pontificate or a younger one (60s) for a longer, transformative reign.
- Vatican Experience: Candidates like Parolin, with deep curial knowledge, may have an edge over pastoral figures like Zuppi or Ambongo.
- Global Challenges: The next pope will face issues like declining vocations in the West, the rise of secularism, and geopolitical tensions. A candidate with diplomatic skills and a global perspective will be crucial.
The Unpredictable Nature of the Conclave
While speculation abounds, history shows that conclaves often defy expectations.
Dark horse candidates can emerge, and alliances shift behind closed doors.
The cardinals’ belief that the Holy Spirit guides their decision adds an element of mystery no analyst can fully predict.
As the world awaits the white smoke, the 2025 conclave promises to be a defining moment for the Catholic Church.
Will it be a historic first—an African or Asian pope
A return to Italian leadership?
Or a surprise candidate who defies all predictions?
One thing is sure: the next pope will inherit a Church at a crossroads, tasked with navigating a complex and rapidly changing world.
Stay tuned for updates as the conclave approaches, and join the conversation on who you think will lead the Church into its next chapter.
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